Electric Vehicle Landscape – 15 Year Prediction
December 2, 2021
Electric vehicle predictions are thought to be too aggressive, but the market is catching up. The latest news articles and studies indicate the switch to EV is happening faster than previously predicted.
EV sales are above 10% in California, with Tesla leading the way with 1.7% of the U.S. market. Three out of four car buyers in Norway are choosing to drive an EV. Switzerland is close behind with 40% of vehicles sold either being all-electric or a hybrid.
Industry analysts are predicting the Oil Age will end sooner than previously expected. By 2045, less than 1% of sales will represent fossil fuel-powered vehicles.
The Electric Vehicle Landscape
One of the Big Four accounting firms, Ernst & Young, is changing their EV prediction. Europe will lead the way with EV sales surpassing legacy cars by 2028. China is expected to follow by 2033, with the U.S. in third place. By 2036, most auto sales in the United States will be for electric vehicles.
Why is the electric vehicle landscape changing faster than anticipated? Consumer attitudes are changing aided by advancing technology and climate change-focused regulations. The automotive industry is embracing the shift towards electric vehicles, but the rapid consumer shift is happening sooner than they expected.
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Understanding the EV Prediction Model
The global pandemic affected the worldwide automotive industry when showrooms closed. Now consumers are back to car shopping, and 30% are looking to purchase an electric vehicle.
All indicators currently point to a faster than expected switch to electric vehicles, but how does the model come up with market expectations?
The accounting firm Ernst & Young uses an AI-based system to create its model. It considers consumer behavior, technology advancements, regulatory trends, and automaker strategies.
The model is constantly being updated to reflect changing trends. As predictions are lined up with real-time actions, the model learns from any mistakes in its calculations. It is constantly learning and changing to deliver more accurate predictions regarding the electric vehicle market.
Multiple Industries Need to Adapt to Meet the 15 Year Predictions
The automobile industry is not the only one that needs to adapt to the changing electric vehicle landscape. Energy industries and governments, both state and local, will also need to make changes. It includes installing EV charging infrastructure across the country, and a smooth transition to electricity starts with following industry predictions.
It is time for the various industries to realize the future is with electric vehicles and not fossil-fuel powered ones.
If you are wondering if the oil industry is aware of the changing EV landscape, they are. They are starting to invest in EV charging companies, but oil companies are still hanging on to what will soon be outdated practices. Hydrogen is being pushed by the oil industry, as an alternative to batteries, but it is only a delaying tactic. Electric vehicles are here to stay.
With more of the global automakers switching to EVs sooner than anticipated, it seems the 15-year prediction will come true. There will be more electric vehicles on the road sooner than anyone expected.
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